2017 NLL Week 1 Rankings

Opening weekend in the National Lacrosse league was actually rather dull in regard to quality games. The Rock pummeled the Knighthawks and Colorado led the Bandits by as many as seven themselves. Toronto has been finding relative success in Rochester lately so I picked that way. The lack of Adam Jones led me to take the Bandits over Colorado in the second game. However the first full week of games is this week with all of the remaining teams playing that didn't in week 1.

Power Rankings:

1.  Adam Jones makes them that much scarier, but him not in Mammoth gear is odd. (1)
2.  Scott Self starts his 1st year with his 10th team in 17 seasons; Culp's been around too. (2)
3. All things considered, I still think Ward is an underrated goalie. (4)
4. And they lead the overall series against Colorado?! (3)
5. Maybe Riggers can take after Toronto's start...(6)
6. There's a first (and last) time for everything - including playing on Thursday night.(5)
7. Poulin could be a great help for a playoff push.(7)
8. Maybe the preseason is true to form...(8)
9. This franchise leaves me more questions than answers.(9)

Pick Recap:

Toronto @Rochester
Colorado @ Buffalo
     Season Total: 1-1, .500 (1-1)

UNDERLINE indicates pick.
ITALICS indicates winner.

The Vault: Authenticity and External Incidents

This flashback Friday is from 9 SEPT 2016 via LinkedIn.

Authenticity and External Incidents: How to Approach it

For years I have been trying to find a unilateral system of repercussions across the so-called "Big Four" of North American sport. While this could include the "Big Six" or other professional leagues spanning this continent, we don't come across these issues nearly as frequently as the more watched and more social four. It's difficult enough that each league on an individual basis has at some point had difficulty in determining appropriate actions to be taken. However, to unify that across the board is that much more difficult. This isn't because of correlating the amount of time necessarily, but the ability of the player. While that shouldn't be taken into account, it often it is. But those are the ones nobody knows about. Either way, it gets even worse when these players got a whole career in before any sanctions could be placed and the list of what is acceptable and what is not changes in both directions.

Though that [performance enhancing drug (PEDs)] era in baseball is relatively behind us, we still discuss how it affects voting by the baseball writers on whether performance-enhancing drug users should be in Cooperstown. And every year, the two most prominent figures of that era always are the center of the discussion with exception to the last couple years where near unanimous nominees have been selected (that's another story).  Keep in mind that there have been changes in eligibility requirements not related to PEDs or other substances. Sportscaster Bob Costas is probably more influential in baseball than all of the other sports he commentates for combined. As I listened to him on a round table on MLB Network on discussing this year's nominees to the Baseball Hall of Fame, he has wonderfully constructed the following assortment of words:

That's the reason I have said that I would vote for [Barry] Bonds and [Roger] Clemens, because they were Hall-of-Famers before 1998. I wouldn't vote for Sammy Sosa because he put up numbers because of steroid use... Let's examine the logic in that. What you're saying is that if no hitters took steroids and no pitchers took steroids that Sammy Sosa would've hit sixty home runs three times? You happy with that logic? Go ahead, live with it. And when it comes to Barry Bonds, Barry Bonds was an authentically great player, but his records are not authentic... The last third of his career is inauthentic, and that's what the thing should really be.

Okay? There's more where that came from. I don't think Costas is wrong in his assessment. Now as for body of work, Bonds and Clemens are in the same category, which is that they were "inauthentic" in the tail end of their career. Yes, McGwire and Sosa are in there, but they are not competing against those two, so says the votes since their respective eligibility.  Under the same circumstances, on the pre-PED part of their careers, I had believed that Clemens not Bonds should get the call to Cooperstown for what was mentioned above - Bonds' records weren't there before his PED use. Not that Clemens didn't have some, he did wait around long enough to get three hundred wins. Bonds was also an everyday player though some would say that that hurts my argument.

Regardless, if one or both get in then we'll here it about why Pete Rose isn't in for gambling and that PED use is worse to authenticity. Yes, but in Major League Baseball there are two things you can't do and those things are using PEDs and betting on baseball and you are told that on day one and it is posted in every major league and minor league clubhouse per the MLB and MiLB. And by the way, just as Bonds and Clemens, Rose technically isn't ineligible from being in Cooperstown. However hecan only now be voted in by the veterans committee where he has no eligibility limit as he is ineligible to be on the active ballot. But in other sports, you have a point - which brings us to more of Costas:

When people talk about morality, drunks, and wife beaters, and racists. All terrible, actually - worse in a societal sense than using steroids, but does not impact authenticity of the baseball numbers. And when people liberally say 'well you know, Hall of Fame guys, some of the most revered names in the game took amphetamines. Yes they did. And what amphetamines were even though they've now been banned, they're more of a performance enabler than a performance enhancer. And the proof is in the numbers. Where was the massive distortion of baseball statistics or norms of greatness and in the fifties, sixties, and seventies? Was. Not. There. The steroid era is what created that distortion, and did more damage to the game and its history than almost anything other than segregation, which is the worst of all.

Spot on. Now imagine, just for a moment, that we're talking modern-day NFL as opposed to the modern (Super Bowl) era. How many complaints have been given on Roger Goodell and his legislation on recent activity? We are looking for too much on someone who had no guidelines. While Paul Tagliabue was Commissioner when Michael Vick was found for dog fighting, I will include that incident for purposes of this conversation. As for two other incidents, The Ray Rice incident and "Deflate-gate," we will include those as NFL and not Goodell matter. I'll address Deflate-gate first. The suspension of Tom Brady I'm glad was not more than four games. However, that said, it shouldn't be less than that either in this case (though it appears the suspension was given in part as a result of the controversy over Spygate in 2006).

I am not looking at this from a case-by-case basis. I look at this from multiple angles though, firstly that the New England Patriots are a repeat offender franchise in the last decade. Secondly, this event occurred during a game of higher significance. Suppose David Tyree actually had illegal Stick-Um on his helmet (you get the idea where I'm going with that). He'd probably get four games as well based on how Deflate-gate turned out. Now the Supreme Court part of this should have been discarded from the start as the suspension is within the bounds of the NFL to award. However if this is something not regarding the authenticity of the game, then it should absolutely be take to a higher court.

That's where the Ray Rice thing comes in. This was a very mild case that still got a large portion of the general public upset. While I was far from upset myself, I in no fashion support abuse of any kind. But four games is a lot in a season that has only sixteen games for a majority of the teams. In these instances, one of two things I would deem acceptable. The first is that the team takes the appropriate action as to what is necessary by their standards (e.g.: Aaron Hernandez). The other is that in addition to a sentencing, if it is less severe that doesn't require a jail sentence during the season and/or is only/reduced to a fine that the higher court may hand down a suspension to be instituted by the league assuming a league consultant is provided to the court. Briefly on the child abuse case of Adrian Peterson, that is simply disciplining of a child. I would never do that particular act towards my children however there is a need for discipline prior to a youth being of legal age. Furthermore, we as a society must examine why we have become sensitized to this example (and others) of behavior that was previously tolerable.

Now, how can we justifiably unify various corresponding punishments for incidents such as the above? I have an idea! Firstly, anything that does not consist of the inquisition of authenticity is to be determined by the federal court of the respective nation (which is to say the nation with the most participants in a given competition). The decision made by that power will then be provided to the Court of Arbitration for Sport (CAS) for a final judicial review. In all circumstances, CAS will outline permissible sanctions translated into matches/games to be missed. Guidelines for unsporting behavior shall be modeled via the NHL's Department of Player Safety. Conduct regarding drugs and other related substance use shall be modeled after policies instituted by Major League Baseball and it's players association. All other sanctions not associated with any of the above will be at the discretion of the CAS, whose rulings are final and after which enforce said verdict by way of the respective league(s).

Everyone in the world was pointing the finger at the US Government when the FIFA case became publicly known sixteen months ago, which indicates front office personnel and other affiliated persons are not immune to sanctioning. Being a sore loser was cited as one of the reasons behind the investigation by opposition. However, while the US has it's right to search for the individuals believed to commit bank fraud and other such crimes, it would now be up to the CAS to provide recommendations (or at least insight) to the respective federal governing body in cooperating with a trial. All of these things put together I think are a great outline for uniting sport sanctioning across all participating organizations in order to discourage mischief through punishment and reward sportsmanship and positive self-esteem with the ability to play indefinitely.

This is perhaps radical, perhaps logical, or even perhaps wishful thinking depending on your opinion. But we, whether as spectators or as morality seekers, must present a case (be it this or another proposal) to be submitted as the means to appropriate the justifiable repercussions to return the integrity of many sporting institutions. I have no doubt this can be accomplished on the premise of the successes achieved through the NHL Player Safety office as well as Major League Baseball's illegal substance policies. The light at the end of the tunnel has not been turned off. We may be losing the battle now, but we can and will win the war.

The Vault: From Couch to Front Office Manager

This throwback Thursday is from 24 MAR 2016 via LinkedIn.

From Couch to Front Office Manager

(in 1500 words)

Realizing Potential

Fantasy sports allows us to take the reins and allows anyone in the world to organize player personnel for a given sport and collect a group of said professionals to attempt defeating other fantasy players' "teams" based on a merit system, pre-determined by the fantasy league's commissioner.  I for one am in favor to offer the out-of-field sport enthusiast a glimpse into our seemingly luxurious career choice. While many of us know that what fantasy players see is far from reality, at what point do we realize that we are treating it as though it is reality? I have for many years argued what should constitute as being a "real fan" of a given team. Okay sure I have my preferences in a team to support, but I find myself trying to take over the GM's chair when I hear about the team's most recent trade through ESPN while yelling at the TV screen.

A "real fan," as I describe it, knows the assets of his player personnel and who his product can become superior than other competing products (if it isn't already). So suppose I have negative personal feelings regarding a player, that will not take away from the fact that they are very good at the sport in which they play. Conversely, however, a player may be a fan favorite, but may not be a player that is the best available to play for you at that position. Such intangibles may not always come into play, but if you know all of the back stories, all of the stats, all of the team's history, all of how the competition plays against you historically, then you likely can do this job (as I define it).

I never say this in a pompous connotation, but when I make predictions regarding player personnel I've determined that I'm correct between 87.9 and 95.6 percent of the time, fantasy or opinion-based. Seem high? the reason I feel this is are based on a few things, the first being that I'm not being paid the big bucks and having to deal with the other happenings around our team offices. Also, while I am a fan at heart, you only see the professional and no fan side of me that predicts based on harsh realities rather than instinct and personal preference. Personal preference and managerial style should not be confused with each other. Preference is just that - favoritism. Style gears more towards to how you handle situations as it pertains to philosophy on how you feel your team will succeed at the area of competition.

The Talent Pool Merry-Go-Round

Let me use personal examples here. I root for Team A, who plays in League Z. First I take team A and evaluate it's players abilities and subsequently decide what I think is working and needs change. From there I notice what is appropriate both to the team's philosophy as well as my own managerial philosophy based on the assets I'm interested in from both other teams and the free agency pool. I then proceed to inquire about those players either directly with a player, their agent, and/or their team (if applicable). Obviously interest doesn't equal getting the rights to said player, thus negotiations may begin - in which case I also have contingency players for consideration in the event of a dead negotiation.

Suppose Team A is a mid-market club with a small payroll, Team B is in a small market club with a medium payroll and Team C is a top market club with a small payroll in League Z with a hard salary cap. My team, Team A, has a player (Jones) who has stagnated near his peak performance age. While they are the best at that position on my team, Jones (in my opinion) fails to meet the team's requirement. I go on to either "shop" this player and/or "shop" for their replacement. I am in negotiation for Team B's ElShorbagy and Team C's Agimovic. El Shorbagy is Team B's lowest paid starter at an age younger than Jones. Agimovic is a backup to the starter for Team C, whose contract is attempting to be restructured and would be selected by many smaller teams as a starter.

ElShorbagy wishes to play for Team C but Agimovic has a no-trade clause in the contract - a constant during the restructure process. Between the two, I prefer ElShorbagy who brings not only youth, but a style of play that ties in with the direction of the clubs future ambitions. However, despite Agimovic's no-trade clause, he can be placed on waivers in which the purchasing team then must negotiate a completely new contract in addition to bringing leadership to the club though beginning to peak like Jones. As I propose with Team B for Jones to be exchanged for a prospect and a player to be named later, I continue to pursue Agimovic, who has been placed on waivers, we come to an agreement-in-principle the terms of a new contract - this in turn ignites a trade between Team B and Team C which sees the exchange for ElShorbagy for cash and a second and third round pick in the upcoming year's draft. Following that, the trade I've proposed to Team B has been approved by both them and the league player's association.

The names have been changed for this illustration, but this was a scenario that took place some years ago except I wasn't the general manager of what we're calling Team A though my preference that I described was genuine. Let’s find out what went down after the above moves were finalized. Jones went on to be a journeyman for the rest of their career. After two seasons, Agimovic was released from their contract which saw them leave a five year, $20+ million contract. They would get injured the following season with their new team in the pre-season and never reached full potential. As that occurred, the player to be named later happened to be ElShorbagy, who was just about to start the second year of a two-year contract with Team B.

In addition, the prospect left for a rival of Team C the following season when Team B no longer could afford their salary. The draft pick received by Team B was traded immediately that draft for a pick three spots higher. That prospect was a lifer with Team A while the traded pick originally received returned to Team C. Team A managed to be playoff contenders, never advancing past the second round. Team B was the most decorated of all as they won the division four times out of five, had League Z's best record once, but could not win a playoff round if their lives depended on it. Team C saw an ownership change the following season, and saw increased payroll revenue. They would resurrect their former moderate successes, but it took rebuilding under the new ownership.

Outside the Box (Again)

In the end, as the couch general manager, I got the player I thought best fit the team's style of play and a little more (dealings from events in subsequent seasons) though it took a little longer than I had liked. This is not exaggerated; however, it is among the most complex happenings during the period of time in which said events occurred. You think that's tough? Wait till you try tackling association football - better yet, try it the way I tackle improving a team. Same model, but you'd have to do it twenty times over if not more given how global soccer really is. Even if you stuck with one continent that isn't North America, then various restrictions com in play as players’ nationalities are so dispersed that it would require its own written piece compared to what I exemplified above.

While my method certainly isn't for everyone, it's old-fashioned in terms of its basic simplicity (not its internal complexity) but modern in the sense that it would've had more of a fabric before the modern age were to phase it out over time. A lot of other principles of mine in sport are very old-world indeed (in the Northwest corner of the globe anyway), some of which long forgotten in the sands of time. As I discuss these being a "first and a half generation" American, my upbringing mixed with me growing up in the modern age has oft times butted heads when determining how to deal with sport. As my views lean toward the former, it is extremely difficult for many to understand my viewpoints within the field.

Disagreements on my sports mentality are usually based on the premise that it is so obscure compared to norms and basic opposition that the disagreement is more based on peculiarity than disagreeing with the stance itself. As such a combination isn't on every street corner in the New World, it isn't coming from the final frontier either.  Try this process for say two months or until the trade deadline of your favorite sports franchise's season, as I am assuming you generally know what player personnel is on the team roster. I'm only asking as a suggestion, so do as you will since it's okay not to participate. See if you notice anything significant during that period of time. Maybe, just maybe you'll find yourself pleasantly surprised.

The Vault: Fancy Sports Numbers and Charts

This way back Wednesday is from 7 OCT 2016 via LinkedIn.

Fancy Sports Numbers and Charts: Why It's Turning Heads

Jerry Rice's consecutive reception record. Ted William's .400 lifetime batting average. Wilt Chamberlain's 100-point game. These are basic records that everyone knows at least relative to their favorite sport. But every so often there are new numbers introduced. Homer runs per season since baseball's "dead-ball" era. Total points per team per game since the introduction of the shot clock. The length of a hockey game with removal of the two line pass rule. In addition to charts like these, there are comparison charts to look after. So what's the deal?

Would you be able to examine why in the modern day that sport franchises are using these methods regarding their on-field product? While every team is at least a little guilty, those in baseball are the most notorious. If the introduction of Sabermetrics wasn't enough with adding more atypical player performance statistics, Amazon Web Services launched Statcast for the 2015 Major League Baseball season to provide information regarding the physics of the game as it happens instead of hours or decades later - particularly towards the abilities of the team members. No doubt, that advancement of the former and innovation of the latter was brought on (at least in part) by Oakland Athletics general manager Billy Beane. American gridiron football is the next closest, distant second from baseball but still well ahead of hockey and basketball. That is because of fantasy football, which has since paved way for other fantasy sports as baseball in particular took notice.

We haven't even brought up contracts yet. We pay players based on their past performance (net worth) rather than on their future successes or failures (projected value). This is before signing and performance bonuses. In addition to all of that, there is some form of payroll salary cap in most cases in which you can use to sign your entire roster. Many have argued - baseball especially (again) - that all salaries should be based on fixed value, which is to say having guidelines based on certain requirements or expectations at a player's given position. Then there is non-soccer free agency, which drives up a player's contract price thanks to competitive bidding for the player; whereas in soccer, one goes to another team for a transfer fee paid to a team in addition to paying the player. Thus, if a free agent, the team owes no money to the player's previous team but pays the player their wages. MLB's luxury tax is simply a tax where if a team can afford to pay its entire roster over the allotted league maximum, a percentage of the overflowing balance is then commandeered by the league and dispersed to league programs such as youth development. The percentage increases up to fifty percent beyond four consecutive years of exceeding the maximum.

How is it even remotely possible to pay for player services based on future performance and still meet the necessary payroll requirements? That is hard for the richer clubs, seeing as the New York Yankees have paid it every season since it's introduction (1997-'99, 2003-) that even with the tax are still fairly wealthy. However, it's effectiveness is mixed considering that spending on payroll doesn't always translate to success. For that matter, neither do all of the stats. The more stats, the more the stat categories clash with each other. Stats in Statcast can be used by MLB general managers when scouting perspective upcoming free agents or looking for trades and announcers have this information available during broadcast to inform the interested members of the tuned-in audience. The quarterback rating in football, was only initiated for fantasy football, but both the National Football League and National Collegiate Athletic Association football has adopted their own forms of a similar passer rating. This however is a stat created from the basic pre-existing economics principle of gross domestic product. We still haven't discovered what's the wow factor in all of this.

Following the end of the National Hockey League's Arizona Coyotes 2015-16 regular season, they hired John Chayka just a month before turning twenty-seven to replace their recently fired general manager Don Maloney, making him the youngest GM in the history of the league. Chayka had come over from running his own hockey statistics organization since 2009. Only one of the known other six teams with a stat junkie at the helm has seen success (Washington's Capitals) in recent years.¹ The big number in hockey isn't points (goals or assists), but rather the plus/minus rating. This rating is the player's team's goal difference when said player is on the ice. If his team has scored twice but was scored on once and the final score was to the opposing team three to four, the player's plus minus is plus one (the total of two minus one, regardless of the final score). But unlike that traditional statistic, new ones have been developed over the past decade such as the Fenwick (shooting with misses) and Corsi (Fenwick with blocking) numbers as possession-based stats or PDO (called shooting plus save percentage in the NHL) which estimates luck. The wow factor in hockey is the numbers in these three categories in addition to traditional hockey stats.

In his first big move, Chayka and his staff managed to obtain an additional first round pick which was conditionally owed by the New York Rangers (via Detroit) during the 2016 NHL Entry Draft after the Detroit Red Wings sought to move outgoing club legend Pavel Datsyuk's rights to free up cap space in a failed attempt to lure Tampa Bay's (then free agent) Steven Stamkos. If New York made the 2015-16 playoffs, Arizona would receive said conditional pick in addition to the multiplayer trade the previous off-season. Though Datsyuk's rights now belonged to the Coyotes, it was known long before this trade that he would be playing in the Kontinental Hockey League.

While he isn't Billy Beane in the baseball world, the Chicago Cubs' Theo Epstein (the next, closest person) did manage to take a supposedly cursed Boston Red Sox outfit to become two-time World Series winners over the course of four years prior to joining his current club in 2011. The Cubs now have become serious contenders for the first time in over a decade to win the World Series. With both of these gentlemen, there are stats and then there are sabermetrics. Look at some of the sabermetric stats that have likely been considered in acquiring talent. Similarity scores evaluate comparisons between players how are veterans versus players who have spent less time at a certain level. Adjusted and weighted statistics, such as with (adjusted) earned run average and batting average as well as (weighted) runs created, are revised versions of an original statistic in the category based on the home ballpark and league (American or National) the player typically plays in. There are also stats for value and wins by starting players over potential replacements, how many runs a player creates (an estimated number, not the same as runs batted in), how many runs a defense has saved, the combined ERA of a pitching staff attributed to each catcher, and a game score for individual player just to name a few.

We've established two sports in particular as to why advanced analytics are becoming important within organizations (perceived or actual). In football, the degree of analytics available have improved but are far from both baseball and hockey. Basketball is the worst among the sports that comprise the North American "Big Four" leagues. Most of the additional statistics are slightly more specific averages of pre-existing categories with the exception of similarity scores as in the other sports. The second half of the why is that technology never stops improving. Ten years ago when hockey was first getting into advanced analytics, technology was beginning to speed up as things including dial-up internet was phasing out of the commercial mainstream and broadband connection was replacing it as the new standard. With new capabilities also came new statistical categories.

Granted some statistical measures are overboard. But there still happens to be pre-existing stats that have not dated themselves, and most never will. That's the beauty of sports - we value our history, and we tell that story through the stats. One of the best ever games in NFL regular season history, Buffalo's "K-Gun" offense at San Francisco's (the original) west coast offense in Week 2 of 1992 can be remembered (the "No Punt" game). Or perhaps one of the many moments in baseball, which outnumber those of other sports as baseball is about the moments and not necessarily individual games - think of no-hitters and perfect games when considering entire contests. Or simply 9.69 seconds - Usain Bolt's then-world record in the 100m sprint at the XXIX Summer Olympiad in Beijing in 2008 (which he broke again in 2009). Some are straight to the point, others have a far deeper context. However you look at it, stats are (if not already) the wave of the future.

¹http://www.tsn.ca/statistically-speaking-chayka-makes-history-1.484390

2017 NLL Predictions, Picks, and Power Rankings

It's that time of year again where professional indoor lacrosse begins it's season. But before we do that, we have to know where we've been.

Recap:
Commissioner Nick Sakiewicz began the offseason by moving the league office from New York City to Philadelphia, where he took the job from. This could also signify a move to bring a team back to Philly. This is the fourth city that the league office has been stationed. This culminated with last week's league re-brand from the traditional red and blue representing two conferences to the modern black and silver with 3D features. This all with an entry draft and the introduction of NLLTV in between. The expansion conversation hasn't accelerated as much as was discussed during game two of the Champions Cup Final. However there is an abundance of players in this regard, but at least they aren't losing teams like the Arena Football League, who is now struggling down to just five teams after having thirteen but three seasons ago.

Power Rankings:

1.  If history repeats itself, a three-peat is coming.
2.  Got the better end of free agency battle with Thieves.
3. There will be a new NLL team faceoff leader. }cough>New England<caugh{
4. Jones to Rush for Greer is way lopsided.
5. Their draft may have been the best despite Point and Brad Self going to Banditland.
6. Their best years seem like a long time ago...
7. Last year s slow start cost them, now that KHawks are kinda back.
8. Not sold on their preseason performance.
9. At least they lasted longer than Everett, possibly San Jose and Albany even.

Predictions:

                              

                             

                              

                              

33

2112

Champions: Saskatchewan Rush
Most Improved: Rochester Knighthawks
Rookie of the Year: Bryan Cole (Maryland), Georgia
Les Bartley Award (coach): Curt Malawsky, Calgary
Sportsmanship Award: John Gallant, Colorado
Defensive Player of the Year: Steve Priolo, Buffalo
Goaltender of the Year: Mike Poulin, Geogria
Transition Player of the Year: Jeremy Thompson, Saksatchewan
General Manager of the Year: Rich Lisk, New England
Most Valuable Player: Dhane Smith, Buffalo
Teammate of the Year: Joel McCready, Vancouver
Air Canada Wingman of the Year: Paul Rabil, Toronto
Executive of the Year: Scott Loffler, Buffalo
Tom Borrelli Award (media): Budd Bailey, The Buffalo News

All-Pro First Team:
F - Dhane Smith, Buffalo
F - Randy Staats, Georgia
F - Jay Thorimbert, Rochester
T - Jeremy Thompson, Saskatchewan
D - Steve Priolo, Buffalo
G - Aaron Bold, Saskatchewan
C - Curt Malawsky, Calgary

All-Pro Second Team:
F - Adam Jones, Saskatchewan
F - Curtis Dickson, Calgary
F - Mark Matthews, Saskatchewan
T - Brad Self, Buffalo
D - Steve Priolo, Buffalo
G - Matt Vinc, Rochester
C - Derek Keenan, Saskatchewan

Picks:

<    

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Top Attraction: Toronto Rock (0-0) @ Rochester Knighthawks (0-0)

Time: Fri 29 DEC 2016 7:30p EST, Connors & Ferris Field @ Blue Cross Arena
Line: Knighthawks -3.5
The Scoop: These rivals from the late 90s and early 2000s both finished out of the playoffs for the first time in a long time. Toronto ended their preseason at 3-0, while Rochester could be considered as most improved. Let's see Brett Hickey for the Rock be the go to even with recently acquired Paul Rabil in the lineup.
Outlook: Toronto by 1 - best bet

Dog of the Day: Colorado Mammoth (0-0) @ Buffalo Bandits (0-0)

Time: Fri 30 DEC 2016 7:30p EST, KeyBank Center
Line: Buffalo -1.5
The Scoop: Buffalo hasn't found a long-term solution to beat the Rush of Saskatchewan at home, which cost them the title last year. Colorado beat the Bandits at the Pepsi Center, in each team's second game, courtesy of a Adam Jones (traded to Saskatchewan) sock trick prior to Buffalo's strong regular season finish. MVP Dhane Smith should continue his performance from that game and the season in Banditland.
Outlook: Bandits by 3

*Away team is above the home team; underline below arrow indicates correct pick.

Where's the Management At?

Many among fans and media have been very critical of Rex Ryan in Buffalo these past two years. The same has been done of Tyrod Taylor. But What about general manager Doug Whaley. At first, he was a breath of fresh air. And he kind of lived on the side away from most of the action. But he wasn't shy from making the big move. The question remains - should he be the one out of One Bills Drive?

OBD has seen some talent through its doors, but none quite like Sammy Watkins. A draft pick higher than University of Buffalo standout Khalil Mack who was taken By Oakland's Raiders from twenty-five minutes up the road at UB's Amherst campus. Mack, by the way, had that strip sack preserving Oakland's majestic comeback against the Bills a few weeks ago. Both great players so far in their own right. But why, if you will be a run-first offense, go for such a pass-oriented position? When healthy, Watkins hasn't really been targeted. Watkins is also the byproduct of the system where Tyrod over throws him, just as Robert Woods, and Marquise Goodwin, and the rest are being overthrown to. From a quarterback who has a great football IQ but hates throwing over the middle.

Rex Ryan's defense is indeed his now. What was one of the leagues best has started to become just  "mediocre" so to speak - still solid, but not what it was before Rex stepped onto the campus of St. John Fisher College in Pittsfield for training camp last season. Jim Schwartz, gone. And could've gotten the job over Rex. Might have deserved it even more, dare I say so. But with the looming decision of the sale of the team following the passing of the late Ralph C. Wilson Jr., there was a certain pressure to have some unresolved issues pushed up sooner than wanted and necessary.

Or how about the man that will run the country in less than a month, Donald Trump? What if he bought the team? All of the Bills Mafia would be sporting "Make the Bills Great Again" hats and t-shirts. He wouldn't have ran for office in which case. What if Bon Jovi bought the Bills and moved them to Toronto or elsewhere? They might have been run into the ground and folded, despite his prior (successful) ownership of Arena Football's Philadelphia Soul with Buffalo-area native the "Lackawanna Rifle" Ron Jaworski.

Doug Whaley has lasted through all of those what ifs. Perhaps it is not for Terry and Kim Pegula as it is for Russ Brandon to decide Whaley's future. Whaley is far from the worst GM the Bills ever had though he's not Bill Polian. To Whaley's credit, he started out fairly well for not being too proven or tested, but that began to show with the handling of the quarterback situation. I wasn't one for Rex Ryan nor am I now, but he made a move - firing Greg Roman for Anthony Lynn - which leads me to believe he should stay one season more, under a new GM whose player personnel priorities include a quarterback and the special teams department. Besides, Buffalo is only the fifth most desirable situation for coaches and who is really out there better than Rex. The Bills may just be safer off waiting another year to see what comes up.

-Ricky

Little High, Little Low...

We've returned with a new home and a new logo. Fresh off a great few months back on the air together at my show at my current station with Barry as one of my regulars (along with friend of the show Chuck Lane). As we move forward with the direction of Sports Talk, let's all have fun living in a pretty good end to 2016 and hopefully a good start to 2017.

Best,
Ricky